* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 75 74 70 66 64 62 64 65 69 72 73 70 66 62 V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 75 74 70 66 64 62 64 65 69 72 73 70 66 62 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 77 76 74 69 63 59 57 58 62 69 78 85 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 19 24 21 22 22 29 28 27 12 17 11 14 12 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 3 3 4 -2 0 -3 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 271 284 280 265 258 262 252 247 234 237 230 194 230 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 27.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 143 144 144 146 146 146 147 147 147 146 149 141 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 62 61 59 56 55 56 59 60 65 66 73 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 16 16 17 16 16 17 19 21 24 27 30 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -12 -12 -17 -24 -18 -14 -16 -16 -4 -9 1 39 36 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 56 59 89 42 14 20 39 34 20 10 31 42 69 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 1 2 7 -3 0 5 4 6 8 5 13 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 206 221 271 266 253 201 252 376 501 608 713 803 889 948 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.1 24.9 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.0 157.7 158.4 159.0 159.6 160.9 162.3 163.8 165.1 166.1 167.0 167.7 168.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 9 15 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 41 48 50 40 29 39 33 32 32 25 20 22 10 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 13. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -1. -5. -9. -11. -13. -11. -10. -6. -3. -2. -5. -9. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.5 157.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##