* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202014 10/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 47 51 60 65 67 68 68 69 70 72 73 73 76 79 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 37 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 37 34 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -3 -5 -7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 11 5 16 3 141 248 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 157 154 151 149 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.9 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 9 9 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 70 70 70 72 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 58 65 73 80 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 56 84 80 96 86 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 74 41 8 -20 -48 -84 -120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.1 99.1 99.1 99.2 99.3 99.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 29 26 22 19 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 16. 25. 30. 32. 33. 33. 34. 35. 37. 38. 38. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 99.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202014 TWENTY 10/18/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 13.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.84 11.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 7.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -10.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 57% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 55.9% 44.2% 31.3% 22.9% 25.3% 63.8% 56.9% Logistic: 50.3% 83.1% 77.7% 70.8% 55.3% 90.0% 88.1% 56.4% Bayesian: 7.8% 60.9% 64.9% 41.4% 16.6% 29.7% 10.4% 23.6% Consensus: 24.5% 66.7% 62.3% 47.8% 31.6% 48.4% 54.1% 45.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202014 TWENTY 10/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##