* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 87 85 82 71 50 31 24 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 89 87 85 82 71 50 31 24 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 89 86 83 79 60 47 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 14 19 24 33 38 45 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 7 11 12 11 14 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 210 208 198 208 230 272 284 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.4 25.6 25.1 22.8 11.8 11.4 11.0 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 122 116 113 99 74 74 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 111 107 106 93 73 72 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -52.9 -52.2 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.9 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 33 35 37 39 49 51 45 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 32 33 34 33 25 22 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 2 0 -22 -21 -48 -18 51 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 90 123 129 98 68 -12 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 38 47 81 108 70 42 -13 -124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1070 1011 872 721 536 246 1075 990 334 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 34.2 36.1 38.7 41.3 47.0 51.4 54.5 57.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.9 63.5 62.1 59.7 57.3 49.7 38.6 25.2 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 23 27 32 36 41 43 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 14 CX,CY: 8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -15. -25. -36. -47. -55. -61. -65. -68. -72. -74. -75. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -16. -15. -16. -17. -19. -20. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -10. -16. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 5. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -10. -13. -24. -45. -64. -71. -75. -77. -80. -84. -86. -89. -91. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 32.2 64.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 776.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 10( 25) 8( 31) 4( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 89 87 85 82 71 50 31 24 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 92 90 87 76 55 36 29 25 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 89 86 75 54 35 28 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 82 71 50 31 24 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 65 44 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 89 80 74 71 63 42 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 89 87 78 72 68 47 28 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS