* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 123 120 116 107 103 91 67 41 28 24 24 27 28 26 22 V (KT) LAND 125 126 123 120 116 107 103 91 67 41 28 24 24 27 28 26 22 V (KT) LGEM 125 124 118 110 103 95 91 73 53 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 11 13 11 18 16 33 47 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 3 1 0 3 10 14 7 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 247 222 226 214 226 206 223 247 285 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.3 24.8 14.4 9.9 11.2 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 131 126 123 121 110 75 72 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 117 112 111 111 102 73 71 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.3 1.3 2.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 48 43 40 37 33 39 40 36 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 32 33 34 37 39 35 29 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 11 20 29 35 0 -28 -40 -59 -46 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 52 49 85 93 65 130 56 14 -15 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 16 19 23 23 40 53 87 29 59 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 782 913 1045 1055 1034 960 692 311 583 1351 922 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.7 28.8 30.1 31.4 34.7 39.1 43.9 47.8 50.6 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.4 67.8 67.3 66.5 65.8 63.5 59.3 53.3 45.0 34.5 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 15 17 23 30 34 35 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 45 21 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -29. -47. -64. -80. -91. -96. -99.-103.-105.-105.-104. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 2. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -5. -9. -18. -22. -34. -58. -84. -97.-101.-101. -98. -97. -99.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 26.6 68.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 894.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.6% 6.2% 3.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 2.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 35( 60) 31( 72) 27( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 66 5( 68) 0( 68) 0( 68) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 126 123 120 116 107 103 91 67 41 28 24 24 27 28 26 22 18HR AGO 125 124 121 118 114 105 101 89 65 39 26 22 22 25 26 24 20 12HR AGO 125 122 121 118 114 105 101 89 65 39 26 22 22 25 26 24 20 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 111 102 98 86 62 36 23 19 19 22 23 21 17 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 97 93 81 57 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 125 126 117 111 108 102 98 86 62 36 23 19 19 22 23 21 17 IN 12HR 125 126 123 114 108 104 100 88 64 38 25 21 21 24 25 23 19