* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/16/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 114 112 110 107 104 100 85 60 36 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 114 114 112 110 107 104 100 85 60 36 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 114 112 110 107 98 93 85 62 46 37 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 10 16 11 18 25 33 39 57 57 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 2 0 3 3 9 10 8 0 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 256 253 246 225 199 208 197 231 259 282 299 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.2 26.4 25.9 23.5 13.9 12.9 10.3 12.2 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 142 128 121 118 101 75 74 72 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 129 128 115 110 109 94 73 72 70 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -52.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.4 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 55 50 44 35 34 39 46 49 44 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 27 28 32 34 36 34 26 18 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -17 -3 10 20 49 -3 -27 -62 -54 16 -4 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 64 90 48 31 109 77 131 66 -13 -21 -18 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 15 18 29 20 47 42 79 79 24 53 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 602 708 815 962 1049 997 830 479 131 773 1506 797 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.0 26.9 28.2 29.4 32.3 36.3 41.2 45.7 49.7 52.5 54.2 55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.7 68.6 68.4 67.8 67.3 65.7 62.9 59.0 52.2 42.5 32.5 22.2 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 15 19 26 31 36 36 33 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 33 35 48 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -21. -34. -48. -61. -72. -79. -86. -90. -91. -92. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -6. -10. -13. -12. -12. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 8. -3. -16. -21. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -30. -55. -79. -94.-102.-101.-101.-102.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 25.0 68.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 696.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 5.7% 3.0% 1.9% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 29( 66) 27( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 21 39( 52) 0( 52) 0( 52) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 114 112 110 107 104 100 85 60 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 114 112 110 107 104 100 85 60 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 107 104 101 97 82 57 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 103 100 97 93 78 53 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 93 90 86 71 46 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 93 90 86 71 46 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 114 114 105 99 95 92 88 73 48 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS