* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/16/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 103 103 103 102 103 101 95 78 56 38 22 22 21 21 20 V (KT) LAND 105 103 103 103 103 102 103 101 95 78 56 38 22 22 21 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 105 102 99 99 99 96 93 88 72 54 42 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 10 13 10 11 11 15 13 24 28 33 39 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 1 1 1 1 0 3 10 12 6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 279 263 251 241 236 226 203 223 251 283 300 312 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.1 26.8 26.2 25.1 15.7 10.4 10.5 11.3 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 144 144 140 125 120 112 77 72 72 72 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 127 129 126 114 110 103 74 71 70 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.9 -0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 57 57 51 42 33 39 43 52 50 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 27 28 31 34 35 36 32 23 15 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -20 -18 0 13 51 21 -22 -65 -87 -49 -34 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 57 73 89 53 86 65 101 87 -31 0 -14 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 7 15 19 29 32 23 59 6 67 27 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 528 619 711 838 966 1019 941 653 324 510 1224 1031 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.2 26.0 27.1 28.2 31.1 34.9 39.3 43.8 48.3 51.3 53.0 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.6 68.6 68.7 68.3 67.9 66.2 63.5 59.9 54.1 46.0 36.4 25.5 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 12 14 19 24 29 34 35 35 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 41 32 37 46 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -14. -25. -36. -47. -56. -63. -69. -73. -75. -76. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 5. -8. -21. -30. -29. -28. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -10. -27. -49. -67. -83. -83. -84. -84. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 24.3 68.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 628.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 4.7% 2.3% 2.2% 1.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 25( 45) 25( 59) 24( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 23 17( 36) 30( 55) 0( 55) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 103 103 103 103 102 103 101 95 78 56 38 22 22 21 21 20 18HR AGO 105 104 104 104 104 103 104 102 96 79 57 39 23 23 22 22 21 12HR AGO 105 102 101 101 101 100 101 99 93 76 54 36 20 20 19 19 18 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 95 94 95 93 87 70 48 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 85 86 84 78 61 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 103 94 88 85 84 85 83 77 60 38 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 103 103 94 88 84 85 83 77 60 38 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS