* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 101 105 108 111 113 113 113 112 110 104 90 77 62 54 47 41 V (KT) LAND 95 101 105 108 111 113 113 113 112 110 104 90 77 62 54 47 41 V (KT) LGEM 95 102 107 110 110 108 106 102 96 92 83 69 51 41 38 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 11 10 3 8 13 10 8 23 29 41 54 64 59 59 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 3 2 -3 0 -5 -5 -9 0 SHEAR DIR 185 136 148 178 232 294 306 261 264 229 217 219 227 244 275 300 316 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.1 26.3 25.7 23.7 14.2 11.2 12.8 12.8 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 155 155 153 146 143 136 127 120 116 102 74 72 73 73 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 144 142 137 129 126 120 113 107 105 93 71 70 71 71 72 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -55.1 -56.7 -58.0 -59.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 11 9 9 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 54 49 51 51 54 60 50 44 35 27 31 37 39 42 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 22 24 26 27 28 31 34 35 30 26 20 17 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 3 7 4 4 -1 -22 -15 8 42 64 57 -24 -14 39 -35 -87 -73 200 MB DIV 48 56 58 6 33 44 65 65 76 55 21 26 30 34 -10 -9 -4 700-850 TADV 12 9 10 11 10 9 13 29 38 20 3 14 9 5 39 71 28 LAND (KM) 200 260 356 421 456 566 741 941 1060 1051 812 530 215 657 1321 1057 408 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.2 24.6 26.2 27.9 30.2 33.1 36.7 41.0 44.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.8 65.5 66.3 67.0 67.6 68.4 68.3 67.6 66.4 64.7 62.0 58.1 52.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 8 8 9 11 15 18 24 28 30 32 31 32 32 HEAT CONTENT 68 82 83 68 56 43 32 34 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -10. -16. -21. -26. -30. -37. -43. -48. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -6. -10. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 17. 9. 2. -6. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 15. 9. -5. -18. -33. -41. -48. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.9 64.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 11.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.19 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 640.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.26 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.88 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.8% 36.0% 30.3% 20.5% 12.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.6% 36.0% 30.8% 20.9% 9.0% 15.2% 7.3% 1.1% Bayesian: 37.4% 42.4% 38.9% 14.4% 5.1% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 30.0% 38.1% 33.3% 18.6% 8.9% 11.4% 2.5% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 27( 39) 29( 57) 30( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 18( 20) 14( 31) 34( 54) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 101 105 108 111 113 113 113 112 110 104 90 77 62 54 47 41 18HR AGO 95 94 98 101 104 106 106 106 105 103 97 83 70 55 47 40 34 12HR AGO 95 92 91 94 97 99 99 99 98 96 90 76 63 48 40 33 27 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 88 90 90 90 89 87 81 67 54 39 31 24 18 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 78 78 78 77 75 69 55 42 27 19 DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 101 92 86 83 83 83 83 82 80 74 60 47 32 24 17 DIS IN 12HR 95 101 105 96 90 86 86 86 85 83 77 63 50 35 27 20 DIS