* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 102 107 111 113 117 119 118 115 112 107 104 95 88 71 54 38 V (KT) LAND 95 102 107 111 113 117 119 118 115 112 107 104 95 88 71 54 38 V (KT) LGEM 95 105 110 112 113 112 110 108 103 97 91 83 71 55 42 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 11 9 11 9 7 9 7 8 12 25 33 47 54 64 73 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 1 0 -3 0 3 4 0 0 0 -3 -1 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 200 178 136 153 193 323 317 307 235 217 219 211 221 227 244 267 284 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.4 27.6 27.0 26.3 25.9 24.9 16.7 11.3 13.0 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 155 155 151 144 142 132 125 119 116 109 77 73 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 144 143 142 134 127 124 115 111 105 103 98 73 71 72 71 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -54.6 -56.2 -57.8 -58.7 -58.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 5 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 49 51 53 54 56 46 41 33 25 19 26 39 39 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 21 23 25 28 30 32 35 38 36 34 25 16 11 850 MB ENV VOR -4 5 3 1 -4 -12 -30 0 16 47 48 52 -69 -68 -15 -57 19 200 MB DIV 21 48 46 50 4 47 51 40 66 70 22 41 6 43 36 -22 -33 700-850 TADV 16 11 9 9 10 9 9 17 21 22 4 -8 24 11 39 11 -23 LAND (KM) 200 203 250 333 416 504 639 802 999 1056 1081 914 708 412 499 1242 1033 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.5 22.3 23.8 25.2 26.7 28.4 30.5 33.0 35.7 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.0 64.8 65.5 66.1 66.8 67.8 68.1 68.0 67.4 66.2 64.4 62.1 58.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 8 8 8 10 13 15 19 24 29 36 37 36 HEAT CONTENT 50 68 82 84 72 48 35 33 27 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -10. -15. -20. -25. -28. -33. -39. -44. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -0. 2. 5. 8. 8. 6. 3. -0. -5. -11. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 20. 23. 19. 15. 2. -8. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 18. 22. 24. 23. 20. 17. 12. 9. 0. -7. -24. -41. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.1 64.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 15.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.19 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 645.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.26 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.1% 43.9% 38.1% 28.5% 17.0% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 43.8% 51.0% 47.4% 44.5% 22.1% 27.7% 12.2% 3.1% Bayesian: 45.8% 23.6% 33.7% 16.7% 6.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 41.9% 39.5% 39.7% 29.9% 15.2% 15.5% 4.1% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 27( 39) 30( 58) 32( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 34( 36) 26( 53) 42( 73) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 102 107 111 113 117 119 118 115 112 107 104 95 88 71 54 38 18HR AGO 95 94 99 103 105 109 111 110 107 104 99 96 87 80 63 46 30 12HR AGO 95 92 91 95 97 101 103 102 99 96 91 88 79 72 55 38 22 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 87 91 93 92 89 86 81 78 69 62 45 28 DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 80 82 81 78 75 70 67 58 51 34 17 DIS IN 6HR 95 102 93 87 84 84 86 85 82 79 74 71 62 55 38 21 DIS IN 12HR 95 102 107 98 92 88 90 89 86 83 78 75 66 59 42 25 DIS