* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAY AL072014 10/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 37 34 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 37 34 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 33 30 25 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 43 42 46 43 48 43 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 5 1 7 4 5 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 237 238 237 232 225 227 252 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.7 26.7 26.4 26.4 25.7 25.3 24.6 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 124 124 120 120 113 110 104 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 111 110 107 107 101 98 94 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -56.3 -57.5 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.2 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 27 25 25 24 22 25 26 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 18 17 15 14 11 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -13 -15 -13 -16 -10 -12 -44 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 5 -9 16 33 11 -2 -34 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -26 -13 -22 -25 -28 -34 -28 -33 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1434 1503 1592 1698 1816 2044 2073 1749 1426 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 33.6 33.3 32.9 32.5 32.0 31.8 31.9 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.9 48.7 46.5 44.6 42.6 38.8 35.0 31.2 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 22 CX,CY: 22/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -19. -22. -27. -33. -37. -40. -45. -49. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -14. -22. -28. -30. -32. -32. -33. -32. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -16. -26. -36. -40. -42. -46. -46. -47. -49. -49. -50. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.9 50.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072014 FAY 10/13/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 59.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 413.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072014 FAY 10/13/14 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072014 FAY 10/13/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 39 37 34 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 41 39 36 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 36 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT