* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 67 73 83 90 96 100 101 104 103 103 103 100 86 68 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 67 73 83 90 96 100 101 104 103 103 103 100 86 68 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 64 68 79 89 95 98 99 98 94 90 85 73 57 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 6 10 12 6 7 9 9 12 12 13 21 26 45 50 60 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 1 1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 1 3 -4 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 271 253 210 206 208 168 294 311 292 264 240 233 231 225 238 234 236 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.7 27.5 27.0 25.8 25.0 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 157 157 157 156 152 150 148 145 143 133 132 127 116 110 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 149 148 147 144 136 132 130 127 125 117 117 114 106 100 69 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -54.2 -55.0 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 3 0 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 49 51 50 54 57 61 60 54 48 37 22 18 25 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 19 20 23 25 27 30 33 36 38 42 46 47 42 35 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -4 10 0 0 -2 -4 -6 0 -4 22 68 101 84 -75 1 75 200 MB DIV 11 34 33 35 44 59 38 53 54 68 79 41 27 4 0 11 2 700-850 TADV 1 4 6 10 11 7 10 12 11 13 12 10 2 -7 -5 -56 -124 LAND (KM) 468 355 245 163 133 244 359 436 551 676 832 1028 1226 1213 1021 757 408 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.7 22.0 23.1 24.3 25.4 26.7 28.2 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.5 62.5 63.4 64.2 65.0 66.4 67.3 67.8 67.9 67.6 67.0 65.9 64.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 6 6 8 10 14 19 24 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 46 54 65 85 77 60 43 32 33 21 16 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 15. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. -0. -6. -13. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 22. 24. 27. 30. 30. 22. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 23. 33. 40. 46. 50. 51. 54. 53. 53. 53. 50. 36. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.0 61.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.64 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 37.3% 24.8% 17.2% 10.9% 30.9% 40.3% 31.3% Logistic: 9.6% 33.2% 24.9% 19.9% 8.2% 25.2% 14.7% 10.5% Bayesian: 8.5% 8.5% 4.3% 0.3% 0.1% 5.1% 6.2% 0.3% Consensus: 10.6% 26.3% 18.0% 12.5% 6.4% 20.4% 20.4% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 9( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 9( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 61 67 73 83 90 96 100 101 104 103 103 103 100 86 68 18HR AGO 50 49 54 60 66 76 83 89 93 94 97 96 96 96 93 79 61 12HR AGO 50 47 46 52 58 68 75 81 85 86 89 88 88 88 85 71 53 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 46 56 63 69 73 74 77 76 76 76 73 59 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT