* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 58 65 73 84 93 100 107 114 116 119 121 116 95 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 58 65 73 84 93 100 107 114 116 119 121 116 95 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 53 57 63 72 84 97 105 108 109 105 98 90 75 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 13 7 5 1 4 4 5 5 0 5 16 15 24 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -7 -6 -3 5 0 3 3 2 4 -1 -2 -2 -3 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 263 279 284 274 235 345 106 44 23 343 211 205 207 198 214 220 228 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 155 157 157 159 159 155 152 149 148 146 144 144 142 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 147 149 150 149 149 146 140 135 131 129 126 124 123 122 116 113 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.8 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 53 52 51 50 52 51 54 54 56 55 47 35 32 33 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 15 16 17 20 23 26 30 34 36 39 42 39 25 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -4 -5 0 4 0 -5 -12 -11 -10 0 20 -12 -64 -63 -52 -50 200 MB DIV -2 12 22 31 37 11 31 17 38 56 47 67 -2 -20 -11 16 21 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 3 4 8 8 11 6 6 7 3 2 -7 0 -2 2 LAND (KM) 649 561 455 342 229 48 111 222 287 353 431 529 631 713 821 932 1053 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.4 22.2 23.1 24.0 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.7 61.7 62.7 63.7 65.3 66.4 67.2 67.6 67.8 67.9 67.7 67.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 58 45 41 42 50 60 68 76 75 68 55 42 32 28 26 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 13. 12. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 25. 27. 28. 30. 24. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 25. 33. 44. 53. 60. 67. 74. 76. 79. 81. 76. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 59.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.86 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 27.2% 16.2% 9.7% 9.0% 18.6% 27.4% 39.5% Logistic: 5.9% 31.4% 25.3% 13.6% 3.8% 15.3% 12.4% 13.8% Bayesian: 3.1% 2.9% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 3.1% 11.8% 0.9% Consensus: 5.4% 20.5% 14.9% 7.8% 4.3% 12.3% 17.2% 18.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 54 58 65 73 84 93 100 107 114 116 119 121 116 95 18HR AGO 40 39 44 49 53 60 68 79 88 95 102 109 111 114 116 111 90 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 45 52 60 71 80 87 94 101 103 106 108 103 82 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 41 49 60 69 76 83 90 92 95 97 92 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT