* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 26 26 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 27 27 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 22 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 43 42 51 55 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 3 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 230 225 226 224 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.5 24.8 27.6 29.1 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 110 140 156 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 41 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 13 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 9 18 23 38 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 10 13 22 23 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 108 98 9 14 52 -165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.6 29.3 30.1 30.9 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.1 115.6 115.1 114.5 113.9 112.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 7 24 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. -3. -19. -40. -59. -73. -78. -82. -87. -94.-107.-115. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 7. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -13. -26. -41. -56. -67. -73. -77. -84. -92.-104.-112. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.8 116.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/08/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 58.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##