* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 28 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 25 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 39 43 45 46 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 234 228 226 224 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.9 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 105 103 101 100 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 41 39 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 14 12 10 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 5 11 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 16 22 12 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -5 -4 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 195 158 140 75 11 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.9 28.5 29.0 29.5 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.9 116.6 116.3 116.0 115.6 114.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -5. -18. -36. -52. -64. -68. -72. -76. -82. -92. -99. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -20. -20. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -25. -38. -53. -66. -76. -83. -87. -95.-103.-114.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.3 116.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/07/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/07/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##