* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 24 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 24 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 29 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 29 33 36 42 48 48 51 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 -3 2 1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 253 253 248 242 232 230 228 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.8 24.4 28.2 28.6 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 104 105 109 106 146 150 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 3 3 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 44 46 45 40 39 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 18 16 15 12 8 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 21 14 19 21 22 39 57 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 20 0 8 31 23 22 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 6 0 2 0 -3 -13 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 350 288 230 174 128 68 29 -34 -211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.1 26.6 27.2 27.7 28.9 30.2 31.5 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.4 117.2 116.9 116.6 116.3 115.5 114.4 113.2 112.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 34 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -4. -16. -33. -48. -59. -64. -67. -71. -77. -87. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -14. -22. -26. -27. -26. -25. -23. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -12. -16. -25. -37. -49. -60. -70. -75. -79. -85. -92.-101.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.5 117.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/06/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/06/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##