* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/06/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 28 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 28 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 33 28 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 27 28 31 32 40 46 54 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 255 252 252 246 232 230 227 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.4 24.9 24.9 27.6 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 105 104 105 110 110 138 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 46 46 47 44 39 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 21 19 15 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 29 20 13 21 18 33 38 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 20 28 31 27 50 33 22 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 10 8 7 0 -8 -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 416 354 296 234 176 96 17 6 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.4 26.0 26.6 27.1 28.3 29.2 30.0 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.4 117.2 116.9 116.6 115.8 115.1 114.5 113.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -5. -15. -29. -42. -52. -56. -59. -62. -67. -75. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -13. -22. -28. -28. -28. -26. -24. -22. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -20. -30. -42. -53. -63. -70. -74. -77. -82. -87. -95. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.8 117.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/06/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/06/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##