* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 39 35 31 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 44 39 35 31 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 44 39 35 31 24 18 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 24 27 27 29 37 41 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 3 5 8 1 6 3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 257 255 257 252 239 238 236 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.8 24.9 27.0 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 105 105 105 104 109 110 132 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 47 45 43 38 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 24 24 22 18 12 7 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 25 31 24 19 22 28 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 24 24 41 35 35 30 18 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 9 11 7 7 0 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 477 427 375 312 252 132 86 -24 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.8 26.4 27.5 28.6 29.6 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.6 117.5 117.4 117.2 117.0 116.3 115.4 114.5 113.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -15. -28. -39. -47. -51. -54. -57. -61. -68. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -22. -31. -32. -31. -30. -27. -24. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -19. -25. -35. -48. -61. -69. -75. -78. -80. -84. -88. -94. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.1 117.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/06/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/06/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##