* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 54 46 41 37 33 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 54 46 41 37 33 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 54 47 43 39 33 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 21 22 26 33 36 46 51 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 6 4 7 2 7 2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 236 248 253 253 250 242 234 237 241 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.7 25.4 25.0 26.2 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 108 108 106 106 108 108 115 111 123 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -51.2 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 47 46 44 41 38 32 29 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 26 25 24 20 13 6 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 19 20 27 20 28 28 31 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 20 15 18 20 32 35 23 -7 -9 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 4 4 9 7 -1 -7 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 558 523 491 453 411 311 210 109 86 -32 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.9 26.8 27.7 28.6 29.4 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.7 117.8 117.8 117.7 117.3 116.8 116.1 115.4 114.6 113.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -23. -33. -43. -47. -50. -54. -58. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -8. -12. -14. -14. -11. -8. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -17. -28. -35. -33. -31. -29. -26. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -19. -24. -28. -32. -37. -49. -64. -77. -81. -83. -86. -90. -95.-101.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.1 117.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/05/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 469.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/05/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##