* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 81 87 91 95 92 85 78 69 56 32 35 36 33 22 N/A V (KT) LAND 65 73 81 87 91 95 92 85 78 69 56 32 35 36 33 22 N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 74 81 86 88 87 80 71 64 56 44 34 34 36 36 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 4 4 1 2 9 11 12 18 27 38 44 44 44 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -3 -4 -1 3 3 5 7 14 11 11 6 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 45 25 358 35 87 43 294 261 244 277 226 231 233 235 239 244 241 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.0 24.6 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 145 143 137 121 106 102 107 110 114 117 123 126 130 131 132 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.5 -50.7 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 8 7 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 70 69 64 57 52 48 42 35 26 20 15 13 11 12 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 25 19 6 13 21 26 23 19 850 MB ENV VOR 27 27 19 22 22 19 26 29 26 11 11 -13 -31 -13 -3 4 0 200 MB DIV 57 41 38 35 20 -7 38 11 21 23 18 -13 -19 -30 -31 -14 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -2 0 0 1 7 2 2 -9 -4 -6 -15 -14 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 448 453 486 514 532 519 487 453 420 367 304 247 194 155 119 81 45 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.5 22.4 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.3 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.2 113.2 114.0 114.8 115.9 116.3 116.4 116.3 116.1 115.8 115.6 115.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 12 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -3. -9. -15. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 4. -4. -21. -11. -2. 3. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 22. 26. 30. 27. 20. 13. 4. -9. -33. -30. -29. -32. -43. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.0 111.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.44 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.80 12.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -9.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 11.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 8.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 57.9% 57.0% 51.6% 46.7% 34.3% 20.9% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 39.1% 49.8% 32.4% 24.6% 21.5% 14.6% 2.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 12.0% 18.9% 6.4% 3.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 36.3% 41.9% 30.2% 24.8% 19.2% 12.1% 5.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##