* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 55 61 68 79 82 81 77 75 69 53 33 30 31 25 16 V (KT) LAND 45 49 55 61 68 79 82 81 77 75 69 53 33 30 31 25 16 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 50 54 58 66 70 68 64 60 53 40 31 30 31 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 5 5 8 6 5 6 9 12 20 34 40 45 43 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 -5 0 3 7 8 12 8 8 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 33 18 52 68 42 70 69 105 287 239 258 230 240 237 247 255 260 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.5 26.1 25.0 24.4 25.0 25.5 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 149 147 145 138 122 110 104 110 115 115 119 122 127 131 133 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.7 -51.4 -50.5 -51.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 74 74 71 63 59 53 48 43 35 26 20 17 15 13 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 21 22 24 27 27 28 28 29 27 19 7 10 17 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 4 15 27 16 14 20 15 20 19 13 0 -1 -12 -39 -15 -2 2 200 MB DIV 33 30 43 37 35 10 -6 25 7 30 32 5 -3 -15 -25 -39 -38 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 -5 -4 0 0 1 4 1 1 -9 -8 -12 -19 -15 -7 LAND (KM) 438 467 451 458 487 552 536 498 463 408 359 302 248 219 174 144 100 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.4 21.3 22.1 22.8 23.6 24.2 24.7 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.3 111.2 112.2 113.1 114.8 115.9 116.2 116.3 116.1 115.8 115.6 115.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 21 18 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -5. -11. -18. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 14. 2. -12. -8. -0. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 23. 34. 37. 36. 32. 31. 24. 8. -12. -15. -14. -20. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.4 109.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 33.3% 21.4% 15.8% 11.5% 15.0% 19.5% 12.3% Logistic: 6.6% 31.4% 12.3% 7.2% 5.7% 7.5% 3.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 22.2% 11.4% 7.7% 5.8% 7.7% 7.7% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##