* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 58 66 74 87 91 89 85 81 76 68 52 40 42 42 38 V (KT) LAND 45 50 58 66 74 87 91 89 85 81 76 68 52 40 42 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 55 60 70 77 78 77 75 70 60 47 40 44 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 6 4 9 8 4 7 6 10 8 21 27 28 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 -1 -1 1 4 7 8 7 9 7 4 SHEAR DIR 64 38 37 45 71 47 96 128 244 265 269 231 231 226 228 229 239 SST (C) 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 150 151 149 148 143 137 131 130 128 123 123 121 120 120 120 120 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.2 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 77 76 75 71 68 61 55 50 43 31 21 17 13 10 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 17 19 20 21 25 26 27 27 27 27 24 13 7 13 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 14 7 17 28 19 24 15 22 25 22 0 -1 -19 -38 -34 -15 1 200 MB DIV 45 35 36 50 24 19 -9 27 16 30 20 46 4 -12 -9 -14 -35 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -3 0 -1 -3 1 2 5 4 7 -3 -6 -11 -9 -14 -7 LAND (KM) 378 444 489 463 456 485 479 417 368 318 297 291 286 286 286 286 286 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.9 19.2 20.0 21.0 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.0 24.2 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.3 110.2 111.1 111.9 113.5 114.5 114.9 115.1 115.1 115.1 115.1 115.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 8 6 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 20 22 20 10 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 13. -1. -7. -1. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 13. 21. 29. 42. 46. 44. 40. 36. 31. 23. 7. -5. -3. -3. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.1 108.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 39.9% 22.1% 16.1% 11.7% 16.0% 21.3% 13.6% Logistic: 8.8% 38.3% 15.6% 10.3% 8.3% 12.0% 3.9% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 27.2% 12.8% 8.9% 6.8% 9.7% 8.5% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##