* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 56 63 72 79 82 80 79 80 73 66 59 51 42 36 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 56 63 72 79 82 80 79 80 73 66 59 51 42 36 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 50 54 62 68 71 70 68 66 60 53 47 40 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 6 6 6 3 2 3 8 10 16 15 20 27 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -2 -5 -6 -5 -1 -3 -1 2 4 4 5 8 12 13 11 SHEAR DIR 112 112 106 115 110 157 93 175 230 252 289 279 265 242 236 237 231 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 148 149 148 144 140 130 124 123 120 116 116 115 118 123 128 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 72 71 70 72 67 60 51 44 37 34 30 28 26 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 12 14 16 19 20 20 22 25 23 21 19 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 17 24 27 22 26 30 30 24 26 22 20 7 10 8 28 32 38 200 MB DIV 55 56 69 37 41 49 45 48 33 27 22 -8 -6 1 12 -3 -6 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 0 2 0 1 2 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 290 352 422 418 408 442 472 433 401 360 336 315 278 251 227 188 153 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.9 20.8 21.8 22.7 23.4 24.0 24.5 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.5 109.4 110.3 111.2 112.8 114.0 115.0 115.5 115.5 115.5 115.5 115.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 12 16 19 13 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 0. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 21. 18. 14. 10. 6. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 23. 32. 39. 42. 40. 39. 40. 33. 26. 19. 11. 2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.4 107.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/02/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 41.0% 25.5% 16.9% 11.9% 17.1% 38.4% 29.4% Logistic: 7.9% 30.8% 16.0% 9.7% 10.0% 20.1% 20.9% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 7.2% 24.9% 14.2% 9.0% 7.4% 12.9% 20.0% 10.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##