* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192014 10/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 48 52 61 66 71 71 69 67 65 60 55 50 46 41 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 48 52 61 66 71 71 69 67 65 60 55 50 46 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 46 49 55 58 59 58 55 54 52 48 42 38 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 3 5 7 9 5 6 4 4 12 17 20 15 20 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -7 -3 2 3 -1 -1 -3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 100 89 88 114 131 98 123 100 150 237 248 268 267 260 242 227 224 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.0 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 145 146 148 147 145 142 132 125 119 115 113 112 112 112 112 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 81 81 79 77 76 76 76 77 72 65 54 46 37 32 31 31 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 11 13 14 13 13 13 14 13 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 46 34 22 22 21 25 30 25 21 27 30 27 8 1 -1 5 5 200 MB DIV 64 76 56 69 77 62 64 37 33 53 13 1 -25 -13 2 14 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 -3 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 177 211 264 322 384 392 389 445 441 406 397 385 375 375 375 375 375 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.5 22.5 23.2 23.7 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.5 107.3 108.2 109.0 110.5 112.1 113.6 114.7 115.4 115.8 115.9 115.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 8 9 11 15 14 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 405 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 7. 8. 9. 6. 5. 2. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 26. 31. 36. 36. 34. 32. 30. 25. 20. 15. 11. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.9 105.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 NINETEEN 10/02/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 34.2% 21.8% 16.4% 11.1% 15.7% 31.3% 38.9% Logistic: 11.7% 39.3% 26.2% 15.6% 10.5% 30.8% 40.0% 6.8% Bayesian: 1.0% 7.6% 4.4% 1.9% 1.3% 4.3% 3.4% 0.6% Consensus: 8.8% 27.0% 17.4% 11.3% 7.6% 16.9% 24.9% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 NINETEEN 10/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##