* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 34 30 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 30 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 39 35 31 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 25 27 28 32 30 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 210 219 226 230 231 219 200 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.9 25.9 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 114 114 114 116 119 119 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 34 33 33 32 30 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 10 10 8 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 34 30 29 12 18 29 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 14 1 -6 -1 -7 0 0 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 2 0 2 1 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 574 571 564 567 570 606 664 737 810 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.1 22.9 22.6 22.2 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.6 117.6 117.7 117.7 118.0 118.5 119.1 119.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -11. -18. -24. -29. -31. -32. -34. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -18. -22. -26. -34. -44. -49. -53. -56. -58. -59. -61. -64. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.8 117.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/29/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/29/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##