* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/27/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 66 69 70 66 61 54 46 39 35 31 28 26 26 27 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 66 69 70 66 61 54 46 39 35 31 28 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 65 67 66 61 54 47 41 36 32 29 27 25 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 3 5 7 8 9 13 16 15 13 11 11 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 1 2 0 1 -3 0 -5 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 41 1 24 132 159 156 203 207 228 238 250 228 233 209 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 139 136 132 122 117 115 114 114 114 115 114 114 114 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 56 54 48 42 36 32 30 27 26 23 23 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 18 17 15 14 11 9 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 22 13 20 31 24 26 29 31 26 26 16 28 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 27 5 13 21 19 4 0 -10 -8 -31 -18 -28 -23 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 752 753 749 723 701 663 633 606 592 592 607 635 657 680 703 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.7 21.2 21.6 21.8 21.8 21.7 21.4 21.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.6 116.0 116.3 116.6 117.0 117.1 117.1 117.1 117.1 117.2 117.3 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 7 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 14. 15. 11. 6. -1. -9. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.1 115.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.83 10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 9.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.7% 45.9% 41.4% 29.0% 21.3% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 13.2% 7.7% 5.8% 3.4% 4.7% 2.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 20.1% 16.4% 11.6% 8.3% 7.5% 0.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##