* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 53 55 56 56 55 52 48 44 38 34 32 32 33 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 53 55 56 56 55 52 48 44 38 34 32 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 50 51 50 47 44 41 38 36 33 30 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 4 1 6 6 5 7 7 12 15 19 16 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -3 -1 -1 0 1 3 0 1 -2 0 -4 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 21 48 70 16 129 180 177 236 182 228 218 233 236 245 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.3 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 143 140 135 124 117 116 114 113 114 114 114 113 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 61 59 51 44 38 33 29 27 23 19 17 17 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 18 17 15 13 11 9 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 33 38 29 29 28 23 28 23 25 24 35 22 32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 34 34 23 -1 -19 7 -2 0 -12 -21 -16 -15 -30 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 0 -1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 658 665 684 680 661 633 597 568 546 523 532 560 604 633 676 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.8 21.6 22.2 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.5 22.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.4 115.1 115.6 116.1 116.7 117.0 117.1 117.1 116.9 117.0 117.2 117.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 2 0 1 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 3. -1. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.1 113.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.76 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.90 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 26.0% 20.1% 14.9% 10.6% 12.3% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 5.5% 2.2% 1.3% 0.8% 2.1% 2.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 10.5% 7.5% 5.4% 3.8% 4.8% 6.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##