* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182014 09/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 38 41 45 45 45 43 42 40 38 37 36 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 38 41 45 45 45 43 42 40 38 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 28 30 32 34 36 37 37 35 33 31 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 25 19 16 12 9 6 5 7 7 9 13 17 18 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 -2 -5 -3 -6 0 -4 -3 -5 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 41 47 57 62 55 43 41 66 55 114 147 156 175 180 204 212 222 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.4 26.9 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 151 148 144 136 130 124 121 120 118 118 116 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 73 69 67 64 58 54 49 43 38 34 31 26 24 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 19 30 34 38 40 33 28 14 8 14 8 17 5 13 15 17 11 200 MB DIV 19 24 30 -5 -21 -10 -4 10 -3 16 -1 -18 4 -14 -17 -11 -13 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 -4 0 -2 1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 490 507 530 572 623 618 609 638 646 628 612 595 581 561 542 530 514 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.7 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.3 108.3 109.3 110.2 112.1 113.5 114.7 115.5 116.0 116.4 116.7 116.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 41 27 19 15 14 14 9 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 25. 25. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 11. 15. 15. 15. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 106.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 EIGHTEEN 09/24/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.8% 5.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 11.9% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 3.4% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 EIGHTEEN 09/24/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##