* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 29 26 23 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 24 24 21 19 12 15 18 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -1 -6 -2 -2 0 -4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 115 112 125 133 143 132 121 102 114 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 133 132 133 132 133 134 134 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 49 48 47 45 46 43 46 44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 12 18 24 22 8 5 0 10 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 4 21 9 -18 -1 -2 -12 -23 -6 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 7 5 3 2 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 153 200 254 301 332 414 502 586 664 758 837 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.1 21.8 21.3 20.7 20.1 19.4 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.7 112.4 113.1 113.7 114.7 115.4 115.9 116.3 116.8 117.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 8 6 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -13. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -26. -26. -24. -22. -19. -17. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.8 110.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/21/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.46 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 8.0% 7.3% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.7% 2.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/21/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##