* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 64 64 62 59 54 51 44 35 30 24 21 18 15 16 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 64 64 62 59 54 51 44 35 30 24 21 18 15 16 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 64 63 62 58 52 47 41 35 29 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 19 23 20 24 26 24 15 21 22 23 24 26 22 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 7 7 5 5 0 2 2 7 -1 5 -1 2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 59 45 50 67 57 73 91 101 102 94 114 109 111 119 118 127 126 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.6 27.5 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 144 147 147 148 147 140 138 137 127 123 120 119 118 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 8 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 70 68 65 64 56 57 52 53 51 49 44 44 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 21 20 19 18 17 15 12 10 7 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 28 29 34 57 40 38 32 35 27 16 6 0 7 22 32 200 MB DIV 64 84 74 67 54 17 3 25 4 12 -11 2 -5 1 -18 -16 -21 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -5 -5 -2 -2 -3 -2 2 1 3 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 245 231 223 238 260 308 328 250 236 291 318 348 406 466 519 564 611 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.4 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.9 107.4 108.4 109.4 110.5 111.5 112.6 113.6 114.5 115.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 25 19 16 17 17 20 20 11 9 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -21. -30. -35. -41. -44. -47. -50. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.0 105.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##