* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 70 65 60 47 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 70 65 60 47 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 72 68 63 57 47 40 36 36 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 19 18 23 33 27 18 27 38 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 9 12 9 -4 -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 242 262 263 261 281 295 304 284 272 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 24.9 24.0 23.0 22.1 22.3 21.7 21.8 21.7 21.4 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 108 101 93 88 87 84 84 84 83 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 96 88 82 77 75 73 73 73 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -53.5 -54.3 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 44 46 48 52 50 45 43 34 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 28 27 21 16 11 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -7 -18 -34 -27 -55 -62 5 -7 -1 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 22 15 22 15 -14 -20 -4 -8 -15 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 15 16 27 7 13 12 24 6 -18 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 979 983 1030 1119 1220 1388 1521 1663 1824 1924 1812 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.3 39.1 39.8 40.1 40.3 40.2 40.1 40.0 39.5 38.6 37.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.5 47.1 44.6 42.7 40.8 38.4 36.6 34.7 32.9 31.4 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 18 15 12 8 7 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 22 CX,CY: 17/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -18. -25. -32. -38. -42. -46. -49. -52. -54. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -17. -26. -31. -32. -35. -36. -36. -35. -34. -32. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -15. -28. -43. -55. -64. -71. -79. -82. -84. -85. -85. -86. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 38.3 49.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 627.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 70 65 60 47 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 71 66 61 48 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 66 61 48 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 60 47 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT