* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 80 78 73 59 42 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 80 80 78 73 59 42 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 76 73 68 55 44 38 34 34 34 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 17 24 30 34 27 20 26 37 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 11 9 9 3 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 216 235 237 245 268 278 302 307 293 278 281 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 25.2 25.4 24.9 24.0 22.5 22.6 22.2 21.9 22.5 22.9 23.5 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 110 112 108 100 90 89 86 85 88 90 94 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 99 99 95 88 79 76 74 74 76 77 80 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -55.5 -56.1 -56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 45 46 49 48 47 43 39 32 31 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 31 32 30 25 18 13 9 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 1 3 1 0 -25 -64 -23 8 -2 -11 -6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 52 49 12 13 8 -35 -7 8 -21 -15 -28 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 30 21 8 16 20 11 14 26 20 -18 -26 -25 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1198 1091 985 972 1001 1169 1327 1458 1602 1768 1905 2041 2000 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.7 36.9 38.1 38.9 39.6 40.2 40.2 40.1 39.6 38.8 37.7 36.2 34.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.5 52.3 50.2 47.8 45.5 41.7 39.3 37.5 35.9 34.3 33.4 33.0 32.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 20 20 17 12 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -24. -32. -39. -43. -47. -50. -54. -55. -57. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -9. -9. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -7. -16. -25. -33. -37. -38. -40. -42. -40. -39. -38. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -7. -21. -38. -53. -65. -73. -79. -85. -88. -88. -87. -86. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 35.7 54.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 632.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 4( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 80 78 73 59 42 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 79 77 72 58 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 69 55 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 51 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT