* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 63 69 79 83 83 78 74 69 65 59 54 50 45 41 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 63 69 79 83 83 78 74 69 65 59 54 50 45 41 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 59 63 71 78 81 77 73 69 62 54 47 42 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 5 5 14 21 15 21 21 18 13 15 20 18 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 4 3 1 3 6 3 -1 6 1 7 -1 5 1 2 SHEAR DIR 36 36 47 51 52 74 75 73 56 75 87 87 90 121 102 97 104 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.1 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 153 153 153 152 150 149 150 144 139 135 131 128 126 126 126 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -50.6 -51.6 -50.6 -50.9 -50.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 9 11 8 9 6 8 7 7 5 5 4 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 74 73 71 70 69 67 65 60 59 53 50 45 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 20 21 22 23 22 23 24 24 22 20 18 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 14 23 26 32 36 28 39 73 64 52 44 43 51 32 23 23 13 200 MB DIV 111 97 98 118 99 73 58 64 34 11 30 -4 6 -22 4 19 -27 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -6 -6 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 380 343 306 275 232 231 217 252 320 257 201 262 308 381 467 542 618 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.2 18.2 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.9 101.6 102.4 103.2 103.9 105.4 106.6 107.6 108.7 109.7 110.9 112.4 113.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 37 42 39 28 21 23 31 20 9 10 3 2 2 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 24. 34. 38. 38. 33. 29. 24. 20. 14. 9. 5. 0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.5 100.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 10.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.41 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -8.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 47.0% 35.5% 23.5% 13.4% 17.6% 28.4% 15.3% Logistic: 9.9% 38.4% 27.2% 15.3% 3.2% 28.2% 22.0% 4.5% Bayesian: 10.4% 70.1% 73.8% 57.0% 7.1% 19.6% 6.8% 8.2% Consensus: 11.7% 51.8% 45.5% 31.9% 7.9% 21.8% 19.1% 9.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##