* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/16/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 53 52 52 53 54 50 48 48 50 51 52 52 50 46 45 V (KT) LAND 60 51 44 38 35 40 40 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 51 43 38 35 36 36 30 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 13 12 16 14 24 29 41 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -7 -7 -2 -4 -2 -3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 178 218 217 214 238 217 227 224 231 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.4 28.9 28.6 28.7 30.3 30.6 30.3 29.8 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 158 153 149 149 165 168 165 159 158 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.5 -50.2 -51.0 -50.7 -51.2 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 4 5 5 4 7 6 10 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 66 67 64 61 61 55 50 44 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 17 14 10 5 3 7 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 48 42 26 10 -1 5 13 30 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 84 44 20 18 8 32 38 38 11 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -2 4 1 0 -1 -5 0 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -37 -42 -40 -26 -13 53 8 -26 -68 -118 -174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.9 27.6 28.2 28.7 29.6 30.2 30.8 31.2 31.6 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.4 112.9 113.2 113.4 113.4 113.0 112.7 112.3 111.9 111.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 16 12 10 12 27 34 39 37 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -12. -21. -23. -25. -28. -31. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -21. -26. -21. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -10. -12. -12. -10. -9. -8. -8. -10. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.2 111.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##