* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/15/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 96 96 96 94 94 88 79 65 51 38 30 27 27 25 22 V (KT) LAND 95 96 96 96 96 94 94 88 79 65 51 38 30 27 27 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 95 97 96 95 93 91 87 78 69 57 48 41 38 38 39 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 12 10 3 9 19 26 33 33 26 23 28 39 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 1 6 4 1 3 10 3 0 -4 -6 -2 -5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 125 144 124 124 111 129 240 247 241 266 281 301 302 283 266 267 269 SST (C) 29.3 28.8 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 26.0 24.9 24.2 22.7 23.0 22.1 22.5 22.1 22.5 23.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 148 140 138 139 140 117 107 101 91 92 86 89 87 88 94 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 130 121 119 120 123 104 94 87 79 79 75 77 76 77 81 84 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.5 -53.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -56.1 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 5 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 45 47 54 52 52 53 49 46 43 40 35 32 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 31 32 33 31 33 32 31 28 24 18 14 13 14 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -29 -35 -24 -11 -13 10 8 -2 -21 -40 0 32 42 48 42 35 200 MB DIV 47 19 27 49 73 71 69 62 51 13 0 -16 2 0 -41 -6 -29 700-850 TADV 5 5 2 3 8 20 6 17 23 9 17 10 0 -18 -21 -23 -19 LAND (KM) 1434 1473 1520 1612 1515 1340 1148 995 1055 1240 1423 1584 1771 1962 1847 1749 1583 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.6 29.5 30.6 31.6 34.0 36.4 38.6 39.9 40.2 40.2 40.0 39.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.1 56.6 57.1 57.1 57.1 55.4 52.1 47.9 44.0 40.6 37.9 35.8 33.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 12 16 19 18 14 11 10 8 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 20 13 16 17 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -10. -18. -27. -35. -42. -48. -53. -59. -62. -65. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 2. -0. -2. -8. -15. -23. -28. -29. -28. -27. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -7. -16. -30. -44. -57. -65. -68. -68. -70. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 27.7 56.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 825.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 12.4% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 5.7% 4.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.3% 5.4% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 7.9% 5.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 19( 33) 19( 46) 16( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 96 96 96 94 94 88 79 65 51 38 30 27 27 25 22 18HR AGO 95 94 94 94 94 92 92 86 77 63 49 36 28 25 25 23 20 12HR AGO 95 92 91 91 91 89 89 83 74 60 46 33 25 22 22 20 17 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 83 83 77 68 54 40 27 19 16 16 DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 74 74 68 59 45 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 76 76 70 61 47 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 96 96 87 81 77 77 71 62 48 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS