* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 105 102 99 93 85 76 66 57 46 37 34 31 26 22 19 V (KT) LAND 110 107 105 102 87 82 57 54 44 34 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 104 99 94 73 75 54 51 47 43 39 35 33 32 31 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 11 9 6 10 12 12 19 21 28 31 32 32 30 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 179 227 209 186 187 226 183 217 200 217 202 203 214 228 229 244 242 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.6 27.9 27.2 25.9 25.1 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 147 146 140 142 134 119 110 106 106 107 111 113 114 113 112 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.7 -49.8 -50.2 -50.1 -50.6 -50.4 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 7 7 4 4 3 4 3 5 5 7 5 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 70 68 64 59 57 50 46 40 32 28 26 27 29 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 22 22 20 18 15 12 10 6 3 3 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 69 66 55 53 48 22 11 -12 0 -18 1 9 12 17 22 15 5 200 MB DIV 38 50 4 23 67 21 18 9 30 28 27 -8 16 -10 7 -12 -3 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 6 2 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 -12 -17 -7 -6 3 1 LAND (KM) 129 0 5 1 10 33 -20 15 70 79 56 42 20 13 15 23 31 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.9 23.8 24.5 25.2 26.4 27.3 27.9 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.0 110.8 111.5 112.2 113.3 114.1 114.8 115.2 115.3 115.2 115.1 114.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 9 9 7 5 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 16 9 8 9 4 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 15 CX,CY: -4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -17. -26. -35. -43. -49. -53. -56. -59. -61. -65. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -20. -25. -27. -25. -21. -19. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -17. -25. -34. -44. -53. -64. -73. -76. -79. -84. -88. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.0 109.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.53 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 10.9% 7.2% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 3.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 4.6% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##