* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 81 87 91 97 102 105 107 102 96 85 67 51 37 27 20 V (KT) LAND 70 75 81 87 91 97 102 105 107 102 96 85 67 51 37 27 20 V (KT) LGEM 70 77 84 91 96 103 102 97 94 87 77 66 51 42 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 13 11 10 8 5 1 7 17 22 31 39 42 44 46 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -3 -2 3 0 5 1 5 6 10 -1 -2 -6 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 173 129 133 148 158 147 107 282 234 232 248 259 278 284 291 282 268 SST (C) 28.6 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 28.3 28.0 27.5 25.5 24.6 21.9 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.2 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 158 161 163 160 158 141 137 133 112 106 89 82 83 85 86 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 145 147 146 142 137 121 119 116 100 94 80 73 72 73 74 74 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -51.1 -50.7 -51.7 -52.8 -53.9 -54.5 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 6 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 42 42 41 42 41 42 44 50 58 54 54 55 48 43 46 43 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 29 30 32 34 35 36 35 35 34 29 24 19 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -9 -5 -13 -18 -12 -16 -17 1 -16 0 5 -9 -15 15 44 28 200 MB DIV 23 71 41 40 45 41 35 55 94 99 56 70 14 2 -7 -14 -17 700-850 TADV 14 12 5 5 6 6 1 12 -3 10 16 17 3 -4 -6 -14 -41 LAND (KM) 1761 1675 1598 1545 1501 1496 1609 1507 1323 1067 959 1111 1347 1537 1686 1810 1931 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.1 25.7 26.4 27.0 28.4 30.1 32.1 34.5 37.2 39.4 41.1 41.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.2 52.4 53.5 54.5 56.0 56.5 56.2 54.4 51.2 46.8 41.6 37.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 12 17 19 21 18 12 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 39 39 35 30 27 13 11 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. -0. -7. -14. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 21. 27. 32. 35. 37. 32. 26. 15. -3. -19. -33. -43. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 24.4 50.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 635.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.27 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.4% 37.0% 27.3% 18.0% 11.9% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.9% 43.4% 39.6% 19.9% 7.6% 14.3% 6.7% 3.0% Bayesian: 4.0% 6.2% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.2% 1.5% 0.0% Consensus: 12.1% 28.9% 23.9% 12.7% 6.5% 11.8% 2.8% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 12( 22) 20( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 81 87 91 97 102 105 107 102 96 85 67 51 37 27 20 18HR AGO 70 69 75 81 85 91 96 99 101 96 90 79 61 45 31 21 DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 72 76 82 87 90 92 87 81 70 52 36 22 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 64 70 75 78 80 75 69 58 40 24 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT