* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 54 55 60 69 80 86 93 94 91 85 79 66 55 44 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 54 55 60 69 80 86 93 94 91 85 79 66 55 44 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 54 61 72 83 90 90 87 81 71 62 53 46 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 8 9 9 7 8 15 18 25 19 24 31 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 5 4 -6 SHEAR DIR 209 196 188 176 189 144 171 132 176 243 256 261 268 249 264 262 266 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.8 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.0 27.7 26.1 25.5 24.1 23.0 22.6 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 137 140 149 161 163 159 149 137 134 117 111 100 93 91 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 127 130 138 148 147 141 129 118 115 101 96 87 81 80 77 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.6 -50.9 -50.0 -50.3 -49.7 -50.3 -51.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 47 47 46 44 45 42 49 53 60 58 52 48 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 23 21 23 27 31 33 35 36 35 34 33 27 23 19 850 MB ENV VOR 32 26 21 18 4 3 -9 -11 -15 3 -20 -26 -12 -15 -40 -25 -23 200 MB DIV 48 49 41 8 -5 30 16 57 16 43 32 74 48 89 36 27 9 700-850 TADV 7 11 15 13 10 11 11 2 1 2 -2 14 33 21 10 12 -26 LAND (KM) 1861 1874 1859 1822 1734 1581 1486 1469 1562 1537 1354 1156 987 968 1083 1293 1513 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.3 23.0 24.4 26.0 27.6 29.5 31.7 33.9 36.3 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.7 46.7 47.7 48.7 49.8 51.9 53.9 55.5 56.4 56.4 55.3 53.1 50.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 13 15 15 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 21 22 28 35 38 36 28 17 12 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 13. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. -0. 1. 4. 9. 11. 15. 15. 13. 10. 7. -0. -5. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 10. 15. 24. 35. 41. 48. 49. 46. 40. 34. 21. 10. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.4 45.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.9% 10.8% 8.1% 7.6% 11.3% 13.4% 19.1% Logistic: 3.9% 13.6% 6.6% 2.0% 1.3% 6.9% 8.3% 9.8% Bayesian: 1.9% 6.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% Consensus: 3.9% 12.0% 6.2% 3.4% 3.0% 6.2% 7.5% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 54 55 60 69 80 86 93 94 91 85 79 66 55 44 18HR AGO 45 44 46 50 51 56 65 76 82 89 90 87 81 75 62 51 40 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 46 51 60 71 77 84 85 82 76 70 57 46 35 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 41 50 61 67 74 75 72 66 60 47 36 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT