* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 63 71 78 90 95 92 89 82 72 65 57 49 40 31 23 V (KT) LAND 55 58 63 71 78 90 95 92 89 82 72 65 57 49 40 31 23 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 60 64 69 78 85 87 84 76 68 60 50 41 32 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 4 1 8 4 9 7 6 7 14 10 9 14 19 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 -1 3 -3 0 1 0 -3 0 4 0 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 15 9 336 31 56 182 138 165 164 102 152 207 174 195 189 205 201 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 27.9 27.8 26.7 26.2 25.7 24.7 23.1 21.9 21.0 20.7 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 155 154 144 142 130 124 118 108 91 78 68 64 66 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.1 -49.9 -50.2 -49.6 -50.3 -49.6 -50.0 -49.5 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 10 8 9 7 7 5 4 3 4 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 75 76 80 78 77 73 73 66 67 56 49 39 30 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 31 33 35 36 35 35 33 31 29 26 22 18 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 40 56 71 63 78 74 80 73 60 49 43 28 21 14 27 200 MB DIV 70 58 72 80 88 56 70 29 88 32 19 19 31 23 3 -4 -21 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -6 -5 -5 -3 3 -5 3 -2 0 0 -4 -7 -14 LAND (KM) 307 315 325 305 298 325 267 201 195 221 291 305 333 381 421 439 460 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.5 17.0 17.4 18.8 20.5 22.0 23.2 24.0 24.7 25.2 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.5 105.9 106.4 106.9 108.3 110.0 111.7 113.1 114.3 115.4 116.4 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 7 8 11 11 10 8 7 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 52 48 41 31 24 22 21 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 9. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 16. 23. 35. 40. 37. 34. 27. 17. 10. 2. -6. -15. -24. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.1 105.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 36.2% 24.3% 16.8% 12.4% 16.8% 16.2% 12.3% Logistic: 2.9% 22.1% 8.4% 3.7% 1.5% 6.0% 3.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 14.9% 7.9% 3.9% 0.3% 5.5% 2.6% 4.7% Consensus: 5.5% 24.4% 13.5% 8.1% 4.7% 9.4% 7.3% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##