* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 56 62 67 80 90 95 96 95 90 83 76 69 63 59 55 V (KT) LAND 50 52 56 62 67 80 90 95 96 95 90 83 76 69 63 59 55 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 57 61 70 83 94 99 97 88 80 72 62 52 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 17 14 13 5 5 6 12 4 4 11 8 10 10 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 -4 -3 0 2 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 44 41 47 23 18 1 53 122 105 102 155 108 160 191 176 177 174 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.1 27.4 25.8 24.1 22.6 22.3 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 159 159 160 157 152 151 145 135 137 120 102 86 83 87 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -50.5 -50.3 -49.3 -49.6 -48.9 -49.7 -48.9 -49.6 -49.3 -49.7 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 9 7 10 8 8 6 5 3 3 1 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 78 78 78 77 76 75 73 67 68 64 64 58 55 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 27 29 29 33 36 38 39 40 39 38 36 33 29 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 23 35 53 67 104 91 104 82 76 67 65 67 70 59 54 200 MB DIV 66 68 70 62 81 64 142 103 49 76 26 34 32 2 0 2 3 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 0 -2 -2 -4 -1 -2 -6 -3 -4 0 1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 336 343 349 348 350 349 343 407 300 306 308 407 446 497 584 694 810 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.5 17.7 19.0 20.4 21.8 23.0 23.9 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.8 105.0 105.3 105.5 106.4 107.7 109.3 111.1 112.8 114.6 116.2 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 4 7 9 10 11 10 10 8 6 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 63 64 66 61 58 38 20 20 18 11 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 13. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 5. 8. 13. 19. 24. 25. 23. 20. 16. 11. 6. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 17. 30. 40. 45. 46. 45. 40. 33. 26. 19. 13. 9. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.5 104.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.59 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.77 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.7% 18.0% 13.6% 9.8% 13.1% 17.6% 17.8% Logistic: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 14.3% Consensus: 0.0% 8.4% 6.2% 4.6% 3.3% 4.5% 6.2% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##