* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062014 09/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 47 55 62 70 75 85 89 92 89 86 84 78 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 47 55 62 70 75 85 89 92 89 86 84 78 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 44 49 54 60 69 79 86 86 82 79 76 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 13 13 18 7 15 10 10 6 8 9 16 21 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 0 3 2 1 1 3 4 7 5 6 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 208 216 224 236 230 233 219 213 174 205 166 189 144 214 217 249 248 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.7 27.4 27.9 28.4 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.7 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 121 121 121 129 136 143 162 162 158 146 134 132 129 132 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 114 115 114 121 126 131 147 144 137 124 114 111 109 111 105 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.2 -52.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 59 56 58 58 56 57 55 52 51 49 49 46 48 46 45 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 16 19 21 24 26 31 33 35 34 34 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 68 58 49 49 45 37 32 10 0 0 9 -2 22 12 19 27 42 200 MB DIV 43 47 37 19 34 49 58 -1 44 30 72 52 82 24 75 54 19 700-850 TADV 4 4 4 6 6 7 11 16 18 14 8 5 2 3 2 8 -10 LAND (KM) 2042 2006 1978 1961 1940 1915 1962 1943 1822 1751 1723 1751 1830 1701 1551 1431 1345 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.4 19.0 20.1 21.5 23.0 24.5 25.9 27.3 28.6 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.7 38.8 39.8 40.8 41.9 44.0 45.9 47.7 49.4 50.8 52.0 52.7 53.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 6 4 3 13 21 34 39 37 36 29 11 9 5 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 18. 20. 22. 19. 17. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 17. 25. 32. 40. 45. 55. 59. 62. 59. 56. 54. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 37.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 SIX 09/11/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 16.7% 11.5% 8.5% 7.9% 10.6% 11.2% 16.2% Logistic: 7.1% 28.4% 14.6% 5.7% 3.5% 12.2% 13.1% 19.7% Bayesian: 3.4% 11.3% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 5.6% 18.8% 9.9% 5.1% 3.9% 7.8% 8.2% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 SIX 09/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 SIX 09/11/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 42 47 55 62 70 75 85 89 92 89 86 84 78 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 38 43 51 58 66 71 81 85 88 85 82 80 74 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 37 45 52 60 65 75 79 82 79 76 74 68 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 35 42 50 55 65 69 72 69 66 64 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT