* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 29 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 34 29 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 34 29 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 7 11 14 16 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 3 0 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 91 130 136 145 138 138 134 122 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.3 23.9 23.4 23.2 22.8 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 105 105 103 98 93 91 87 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 43 40 37 34 31 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 12 11 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 26 28 25 35 14 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 7 18 20 26 0 5 -10 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 289 297 315 306 286 222 157 91 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.0 118.2 118.2 118.2 117.8 117.2 116.6 115.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -20. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -19. -27. -36. -45. -51. -55. -59. -62. -65. -67. -68. -68. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.8 117.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/08/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##