* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/07/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 36 29 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 36 29 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 36 29 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 9 9 10 14 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 97 125 132 150 145 131 111 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.3 23.6 23.3 23.1 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 105 105 103 95 92 89 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 45 42 37 34 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 15 14 12 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 29 31 31 28 30 15 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -2 16 9 15 19 -3 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 0 2 0 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 282 284 301 310 311 254 187 135 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.3 117.7 118.0 118.2 118.3 118.0 117.5 117.0 116.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -16. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -22. -26. -33. -41. -51. -59. -62. -66. -68. -71. -72. -72. -72. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.3 117.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 349.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##