* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 74 67 61 50 40 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 82 74 67 61 50 40 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 82 73 65 58 45 36 30 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 8 10 9 9 6 3 9 5 7 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 2 1 0 0 1 4 3 4 0 2 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 5 46 74 65 76 149 119 161 119 89 90 133 184 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.0 25.4 24.9 24.8 25.1 24.4 23.7 23.2 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 122 116 111 109 111 104 96 91 86 86 85 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 -51.7 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 50 52 52 45 42 37 32 30 27 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 20 20 19 16 13 11 8 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 28 27 25 28 28 25 21 14 2 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -23 -26 -24 -23 23 18 -8 -6 -3 -9 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 2 1 2 2 1 -1 -6 -3 -2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 204 203 208 209 218 247 236 169 109 52 31 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.4 26.8 27.6 28.4 29.0 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.2 115.8 116.4 116.9 117.5 117.6 117.2 116.8 116.3 116.1 116.1 116.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -7. -13. -19. -26. -33. -39. -45. -50. -54. -57. -60. -64. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -16. -23. -28. -28. -29. -27. -24. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -29. -40. -50. -61. -72. -83. -89. -93. -93. -92. -91. -91. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 25.1 114.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 624.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##