* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 107 104 97 87 70 53 41 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 107 104 97 87 70 53 41 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 107 103 93 83 64 49 40 32 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 11 10 11 5 5 3 9 7 12 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 22 18 40 53 81 97 150 178 144 104 120 112 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.4 25.7 24.6 24.8 24.3 23.6 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 137 126 119 107 108 103 94 91 91 89 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 53 51 52 47 42 36 27 23 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 23 21 20 18 15 14 10 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 28 32 41 36 34 23 20 17 19 20 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -11 -24 -28 -1 -19 39 23 8 -13 0 -2 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 92 141 185 177 172 171 197 205 179 170 165 161 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.8 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.9 27.7 28.5 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.7 114.3 114.9 115.4 116.4 117.0 117.3 117.4 117.4 117.4 117.4 117.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -6. -15. -24. -33. -41. -49. -56. -61. -65. -68. -71. -74. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -20. -26. -28. -29. -27. -25. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -8. -18. -35. -52. -64. -80. -92.-101.-109.-112.-110.-109.-108.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 24.4 113.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.01 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 688.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.14 -0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 17.7% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 6.1% 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##