* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 79 76 74 64 50 39 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 80 79 76 74 64 50 39 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 76 72 67 57 46 36 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 16 14 13 11 11 6 5 12 15 23 24 26 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 0 0 6 2 9 8 5 1 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 30 21 29 30 31 79 100 108 121 112 114 111 120 141 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 28.5 28.0 27.9 26.2 25.1 24.9 24.6 23.9 23.3 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 148 143 142 124 112 109 106 98 91 88 88 86 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.2 -50.0 -50.4 -50.7 -50.0 -50.5 -50.0 -50.3 -50.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 59 58 58 53 51 48 44 39 32 27 26 24 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 25 26 23 21 19 15 12 6 4 3 1 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 54 46 43 35 39 31 24 8 6 4 0 -5 -8 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 4 -1 -5 -20 3 1 31 9 16 -11 6 -2 7 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 8 5 0 0 1 2 1 0 -4 -6 -6 -6 -3 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 148 143 108 123 172 184 185 217 265 275 257 244 235 222 213 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.5 24.0 24.5 24.9 25.8 26.6 27.2 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.4 112.9 113.5 114.0 115.3 116.3 117.1 117.7 118.0 118.1 118.1 118.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 30 13 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. -0. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. -36. -41. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. -23. -31. -33. -30. -29. -26. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -6. -16. -30. -41. -51. -61. -75. -82. -85. -90. -93. -93. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.9 111.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 -2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 20.8% 16.2% 12.1% 9.2% 9.9% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 4.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 8.6% 6.0% 4.3% 3.3% 3.4% 2.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##