* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 80 79 78 71 61 50 41 35 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 80 80 79 78 71 61 50 41 35 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 78 75 72 64 54 44 36 29 23 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 11 10 10 9 10 8 6 6 5 9 10 18 21 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 2 3 3 5 4 4 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 27 44 30 15 14 46 102 150 177 142 115 110 115 146 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.3 28.8 28.2 27.6 25.9 25.0 24.8 24.1 23.3 22.9 22.7 22.6 22.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 156 151 145 139 121 111 108 101 91 87 85 83 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.4 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 61 60 60 54 53 48 43 34 27 24 23 23 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 25 25 23 21 19 15 13 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 50 42 42 45 33 36 23 14 15 15 7 7 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 21 2 15 4 -32 18 0 40 12 7 -11 -3 0 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 4 3 0 0 3 3 1 0 -2 -4 -2 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 146 149 138 117 107 195 187 192 241 294 289 288 288 274 266 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.8 23.3 23.8 24.3 25.1 25.9 26.7 27.4 28.0 28.5 28.8 29.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.7 112.1 112.7 113.2 114.3 115.5 116.5 117.4 118.0 118.3 118.5 118.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 30 20 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -26. -30. -34. -39. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -17. -23. -27. -27. -25. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -9. -19. -30. -39. -45. -56. -63. -69. -74. -77. -77. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.2 111.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.37 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.45 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 22.6% 17.5% 13.1% 10.0% 11.1% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 6.5% 2.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 9.8% 6.7% 4.8% 3.6% 3.9% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##