* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 84 84 82 74 66 55 45 38 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 82 84 84 82 74 66 55 45 38 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 83 84 83 80 70 59 48 39 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 16 13 9 13 11 13 7 8 10 16 24 33 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 0 6 3 3 3 6 8 5 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 57 54 40 53 64 19 78 96 128 137 137 123 128 141 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.0 27.3 26.5 26.1 25.4 24.6 23.6 23.0 22.8 22.7 22.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 152 152 153 136 127 123 115 106 96 89 86 85 85 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -49.7 -50.2 -50.0 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -50.4 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 72 67 65 61 52 50 47 47 41 38 32 29 27 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 29 28 26 26 22 20 18 14 10 5 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 61 55 50 54 47 41 33 40 19 11 0 -10 -13 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 49 47 15 -11 -15 -1 -2 0 40 13 19 15 17 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 3 4 2 0 -1 -1 1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 231 201 198 212 213 188 273 274 282 315 348 323 309 301 287 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.8 24.7 25.5 26.3 27.1 27.9 28.6 29.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.1 111.6 112.2 112.7 113.8 115.1 116.3 117.3 118.1 118.6 118.8 118.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 28 19 17 23 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. -35. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -6. -9. -13. -17. -23. -27. -27. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 2. -6. -14. -25. -35. -42. -51. -61. -72. -80. -84. -84. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.9 110.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.29 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 23.7% 18.5% 14.3% 10.3% 11.9% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 8.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 11.8% 7.1% 5.3% 3.9% 4.3% 3.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##