* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 80 84 86 85 80 72 61 50 42 35 27 21 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 70 76 80 84 86 85 80 72 61 50 42 35 27 21 20 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 70 77 82 85 86 81 74 63 52 42 35 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 12 16 18 17 11 9 13 9 7 6 7 11 13 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -1 0 0 7 5 6 5 9 6 8 3 5 2 4 SHEAR DIR 59 45 50 41 48 64 53 74 58 118 86 142 148 154 137 144 191 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.7 27.7 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.4 24.0 23.9 23.9 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 155 153 154 150 139 128 123 117 112 104 99 97 97 97 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 -49.6 -50.1 -49.2 -50.1 -49.4 -50.2 -49.7 -50.1 -49.9 -50.3 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 5 6 5 6 4 3 2 3 3 4 3 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 72 71 65 60 58 54 50 46 42 35 30 29 28 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 26 27 29 30 29 28 26 24 20 17 14 8 3 1 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 58 52 57 68 52 53 44 42 42 34 14 2 5 -3 7 -7 200 MB DIV 62 48 7 10 49 22 8 -22 -6 3 39 18 28 10 21 11 10 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 1 0 0 1 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 347 300 261 226 205 208 180 194 261 252 247 268 275 240 205 187 165 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.5 22.5 23.4 24.2 24.9 25.7 26.6 27.5 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.1 110.5 110.9 111.3 112.2 113.2 114.1 115.2 116.2 117.1 117.7 118.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 26 23 18 19 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -8. -12. -18. -22. -21. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 16. 15. 10. 2. -9. -20. -28. -35. -43. -49. -50. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.8 109.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.39 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.1% 29.2% 21.6% 16.9% 11.9% 15.5% 13.0% 9.4% Logistic: 6.3% 11.0% 3.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 7.9% 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.4% 16.0% 8.6% 6.3% 5.0% 6.0% 4.6% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##