* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 11 10 10 8 9 12 14 15 15 16 17 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 0 1 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 2 2 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 252 231 228 229 207 230 211 213 220 223 235 238 255 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 22.2 21.4 21.4 21.6 22.2 22.6 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.8 24.0 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 77 76 78 84 87 88 89 90 92 94 97 97 100 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.6 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 56 53 51 43 40 37 35 32 32 31 32 33 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 24 23 22 20 16 14 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 19 4 -3 13 13 0 -13 -13 -12 -17 -14 -22 -24 -30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 19 31 7 8 11 0 2 -6 4 -7 -2 -9 -17 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 18 20 12 12 9 5 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1346 1356 1379 1403 1387 1448 1507 1576 1634 1687 1755 1829 1776 1689 1593 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.5 27.3 28.0 28.7 29.7 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.1 29.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.8 130.9 132.0 132.9 133.8 135.3 136.5 137.6 138.4 139.0 139.7 140.4 141.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 7 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -14. -17. -20. -24. -28. -31. -33. -36. -39. -43. -46. -49. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.7 129.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##