* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 72 71 67 50 37 33 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 72 72 71 67 50 37 33 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 73 74 70 63 48 38 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 29 37 42 58 79 66 27 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 6 18 13 -2 0 -1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 216 231 221 222 223 216 198 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 25.6 24.2 19.2 16.3 16.3 12.5 12.9 11.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 118 107 84 78 77 72 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 112 101 80 74 73 70 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.1 -49.6 -49.4 -47.9 -47.4 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 1.1 4.3 3.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 42 51 50 38 38 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 36 37 34 36 37 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 95 147 164 138 131 208 227 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 58 61 65 80 7 42 98 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 -45 -16 51 22 -50 -89 -24 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 686 655 623 400 452 930 1434 1218 1050 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 39.4 41.2 43.3 45.3 49.2 53.4 58.1 62.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.6 59.6 55.7 51.6 47.6 40.3 33.9 28.1 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 33 36 36 36 34 30 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 29 CX,CY: 25/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -20. -26. -31. -33. -37. -40. -43. -45. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -17. -26. -31. -29. -32. -35. -40. -45. -52. -56. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 6. 4. 6. 9. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -3. -20. -33. -37. -43. -48. -55. -62. -69. -79. -86. -91. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 37.5 63.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 57.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 506.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 72 71 67 50 37 33 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 69 68 64 47 34 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 61 44 31 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 39 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT