* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 67 68 71 73 63 45 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 67 68 71 73 63 45 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 64 64 66 70 78 69 49 34 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 10 21 37 65 70 66 66 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -1 2 11 8 2 -3 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 170 183 202 194 182 240 228 210 208 212 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.1 27.1 27.5 27.1 24.3 17.5 14.6 15.4 13.3 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 128 129 136 132 107 78 73 73 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 117 125 123 99 74 70 70 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -50.6 -49.1 -48.6 -48.7 -49.0 -49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 2.0 2.5 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 47 47 41 41 49 39 37 40 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 29 29 30 35 45 45 39 34 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 0 8 27 41 153 188 179 183 211 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 6 1 50 77 64 97 12 8 24 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 8 2 -12 15 22 -49 -39 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 511 538 608 704 693 611 365 651 1069 1500 1146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.3 34.5 36.0 37.4 40.8 44.3 47.6 50.7 53.7 56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.0 70.6 69.2 66.5 63.8 56.7 49.9 44.1 38.5 33.0 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 17 22 26 29 31 28 25 23 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 5 8 20 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -24. -27. -30. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -6. -16. -25. -31. -37. -42. -48. -55. -60. -63. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 13. 15. 7. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. -2. -20. -34. -40. -46. -54. -65. -72. -78. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 32.1 72.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.24 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 566.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.7% 9.4% 7.7% 7.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 6.6% 5.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.8% 4.9% 3.4% 2.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 66 67 68 71 73 63 45 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 65 66 67 70 72 62 44 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 63 66 68 58 40 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 59 61 51 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT